Published in Jackson Hole Economics·6 days agoThe Productivity Paradoxby Larry Hatheway | August 8th, 2022 This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its estimate of second quarter non-farm business productivity in the US. It is likely to be abysmal, with output per hour worked expected to fall at an annualized rate of nearly 5%. That’s because…Economics5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jul 26Summer Heatby Larry Hatheway | July 26th, 2022 After a miserable first half of 2022, investors are looking forward to August at the beach. And why not? As bad as stock and bond markets have been in the first half of 2022, the arrival of the ‘dog days’ of summer comes…Inflation4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jul 20The Case for Strategic Reservesby Michael Wilkerson| July 18th, 2022 The world is facing a looming food crisis. The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, said at the end of June 2022, “There is a real risk that multiple famines will be declared in 2022. And 2023 could be even worse.” Even…Food Crisis4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jul 12A Tale of Two Economiesby Larry Hatheway | July 11th, 2022 “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” Today, investors can probably relate to the bewilderment that Charles Dickens’ iconic sentence from Tale of Two Cities so poetically captured. Investors are confused. Since early June US bond yields have…Economics5 min read
Jul 5Recession — Now!by Larry Hatheway | June 28th, 2022 A growing number of economists forecast recessions in the US, UK, and Europe. Many central bankers are also openly contemplating recession risk. …Recession5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jul 5America’s Birthdayby Alex Friedman| July 5th, 2022 “…What makes America great is not the fact of our perfection but our act of becoming more perfect. …Independance Day5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 28A Bond Phoenix Rises from the Ashesby Andrew Milligan | June 28th, 2022 This has been a horribly painful year for most investors. US equities have fallen into traditional bear market territory. Indeed, 2022 is turning into the 5th most volatile year for the US stock market since 1990. Sadly, there has been little safety in…Debt5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 28Todo Mal?by Larry Hatheway | June 28th, 2022 A few days ago, following the most tumultuous week in US judicial history, a Spanish friend of mine texted me: ‘Todo Mal’. All Wrong. He was right. This past weekend, I joined several dozen people, about half of them under the age of…Economics4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 20Integrityby General Charles Krulak| June 20th, 2022 Editor’s Note: As the January 6th hearings unfold, it is a good time to consider the idea of integrity. Few leaders have ‘walked the talk’ on this subject with more authenticity than General Charles C. Krulak, USMC (RET.) …January 6 Insurrection5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 20Terrible Tens?by Larry Hatheway | June 20th, 2022 Every parent is familiar with the ‘terrible two’s’, that unruly age when formerly sweet toddlers suddenly become tempestuous two-year old terrors. In recent weeks, bond investors have endured their own form of the terrible two’s as two-year Treasury note prices have plunged in…Economics4 min read
