Published in Jackson Hole Economics·6 days agoIntegrityby General Charles Krulak| June 20th, 2022 Editor’s Note: As the January 6th hearings unfold, it is a good time to consider the idea of integrity. Few leaders have ‘walked the talk’ on this subject with more authenticity than General Charles C. Krulak, USMC (RET.) …January 6 Insurrection5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·6 days agoTerrible Tens?by Larry Hatheway | June 20th, 2022 Every parent is familiar with the ‘terrible two’s’, that unruly age when formerly sweet toddlers suddenly become tempestuous two-year old terrors. In recent weeks, bond investors have endured their own form of the terrible two’s as two-year Treasury note prices have plunged in…Economics4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 14The Fed’s Big Hammerby Larry Hatheway | June 13th, 2022 “If you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail’. Today, monetary policy is the hammer and inflation is the nail. This old adage hints at a misdiagnosis. What if inflation isn’t best tackled by monetary policy? Suppose inflation is being generated…Fed4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 8The Blame Gameby Andrew Cates| June 5th, 2022 Bank of England policymakers have been slammed by UK newspapers for ‘being asleep at the wheel’. Spiralling inflation, a ‘cost-of-living crisis’, a borrowing binge, and an overheating labour market are being pinned on lax UK monetary policy. …Economics8 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·Jun 8Forget Inflation, Think Recessionby Larry Hatheway & Alex Friedman| June 5th, 2022 For all the deluge of ink spilled on inflation over the past year, it was always just the warm-up act. The main event is recession, and it is now taking center stage. Over a year ago, we warned that investors and…4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·May 31All Clear?by Larry Hatheway| May 31th, 2022 The origin of the phrase ‘all clear’ dates to World War I, when the London Metropolitan Police used the term to signal the end of an air raid warning. For investors in 2022, the question they must now be asking themselves is whether an…Inflation5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·May 25When Will More Economists Forecast Recession?by Maury Harris| May 23th, 2022 Economists are citing higher recession risks, with the latest reported April poll conducted by The Wall Street Journal putting the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a…Economics4 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·May 25Musk and the ESG Knife Fightby Alex Friedman, Josh Green & Lorraine Spradley Wilson| May 24th, 2022 The knives are out for ESG. First, some politicians sought to make environmental, social, and governance factors in investing a right vs. left issue. Then the world’s largest investment firm said shareholders have gotten out of control by…Tesla5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·May 18When is Enough, Enough?by Larry Hatheway| May 16th, 2022 Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US…5 min read
Published in Jackson Hole Economics·May 9A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landingby Larry Hatheway & Alex Friedman| May 9th, 2022 As any pilot will tell you, take-offs are easy. It is landings that are the challenge. This is particularly true when flying a jumbo jet in a storm, with unpredictable high-winds and cross currents. Add in loud and unruly passengers along…Inflation5 min read
